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প্রতিবেদনে বলা হয়, ২০২২ সালে রাশিয়া-ইউক্রেন যুদ্ধের পর থেকে বাংলাদেশের বৈদেশিক খাতে অস্থিরতা শুরু হয়। এ অস্থিরতা পরে দেশের পুরো অর্থনীতিকে আক্রান্ত করে। এর ক্ষত অর্থনীতিতে এখনও চলমান রয়েছে। বৈদেশিক মুদ্রার চলতি হিসাবে ঘাটতি কমে এখন আবার উদ্বৃত্ত হয়েছে।
সূত্রমতে, রপ্তানি আয়ের বাড়তি তথ্য বাদ দেওয়ার ফলে চলতি হিসাব আবার ঘাটতিতে চলে গেছে। একই সঙ্গে আর্থিক হিসাব ও সার্বিক বৈদেশিক মুদ্রার হিসাবে ঘাটতি আরও বেড়ে গেছে।
প্রতিবেদনে বলা হয়েছে, বাণিজ্য ঘাটতি কমেছে। বৈদেশিক মুদ্রার স্থিতিপত্রের ঘাটতিও কমেছে। তবে আর্থিক হিসাব ও সার্বিক বৈদেশিক মুদ্রার হিসাবে ঘাটতি থাকায় ডলারের বিনিময় হারে চাপ অব্যাহত রয়েছে। এ কারণে টাকার মান কমাতে হচ্ছে। যা মূল্যস্ফীতিতে চাপ বাড়িয়ে দিচ্ছে। ডলার সংকটের কারণে আমদানি নিয়ন্ত্রণ করায় এ খাতের শিল্প উৎপাদন কমেছে। বিদায়ি অর্থবছরের তৃতীয় প্রান্তিকে এ খাতে প্রবৃদ্ধি কমে গেছে। কৃষিতেও প্রবৃদ্ধি হয়েছে ধীর।
এতে বলা হয়, বাজারে বিনিময় হারে স্থিতিশীলতা ধরে রাখতে কেন্দ্রীয় ব্যাংক রিজার্ভ থেকে ডলার বিক্রি অব্যাহত রেখেছে। এতে রিজার্ভ কমেছে। বাজারে ডলারের ওপর চাপও কিছুটা কমেছে। ডলারের বিনিময় হারে যে ক্রলিং পেগ পদ্ধতি চালু করা হয়েছে। তা অব্যাহত রাখবে কেন্দ্রীয় ব্যাংক। তবে প্রয়োজন অনুসারে এর দামে সমন্বয় সাধন করবে। অর্থাৎ প্রয়োজন হলে ডলারের দাম আরও বাড়াবে। প্রতিবেদনে বলা হয়, বিশ্বের প্রধান কেন্দ্রীয় ব্যাংকগুলোর নীতি সুদ হার বাড়িয়ে মূল্যস্ফীতিকে নিয়ন্ত্রণ করেছে। অনেক দেশ প্রত্যাশার চেয়ে বেশি কমিয়ে আনতে সক্ষম হয়েছে।
প্রতিবেদনে বলা হয়, দেশের সামষ্টিক অর্থনৈতিক পরিবেশ বর্তমানে বহুমুখী চ্যালেঞ্জের মধ্যে রয়েছে। একই সঙ্গে অর্থনীতিতে অনেক সম্ভাবনার দুয়ারও খুলেছে। এসব বিবেচনায় নিয়ে কেন্দ্রীয় ব্যাংক টেকসই সম্প্রসারণের লক্ষ্যে নীতি কৌশল গ্রহণ করছে। ফলে চলতি অর্থবছরে অর্থনৈতিক কর্মকাণ্ড আরও শক্তিশালী হবে বলে মনে করছে।
এদিকে চলতি অর্থবছরের নতুন মুদ্রানীতি সম্পর্কে প্রতিবেদনে বলা হয়েছে, মূল্যস্ফীতির ঊর্ধ্বগতি নিয়ন্ত্রণ করতে হলে মুদ্রানীতিকে আরও সংকোচনমুখী করা ছাড়া কোনো বিকল্প নেই। তা নতুন মুদ্রানীতিতে বিভিন্ন খাতে লাগাম টানা হবে। তবে উৎপাদন খাতে জোগান বাড়ানো হবে।
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